CNN Shows It's Picks for the Cars of the Future

The Big Three US automakers are struggling today. Their structure, philosophy and product lines date from the era when crude oil was plentiful and cheap. Now, facing a future of stagnant or shrinking crude oil production rates and rapidly growing consumption, they are in danger of disappearing. They might be able to adapt, but often what happens in industry is that the old giants cannot change their ways in time to adapt to new circumstances and a new generation takes over. CNN Money reviews six small car producers that they think might form the seeds of this new generation. Amongst them we find:

• A company converting the Prius to run on only electricity; that is convert it from a hybrid (HEV) to a fully electric vehicle (EV).
• A company making electric delivery vans. Delivery vans are a perfect concept for being replaced with electric vehicles because they can be plugged in overnight in their depots which removes charging time concerns. Also their predetermined routes mitigate against range problems.
  
• A boat company which converts motorcycles into small open three wheel neighborhood carts.
• A company that is planning to make a lightweight plastic and aluminum police cruiser.
  

Whether any of these small companies will have success in the years to come is impossible to say. Their products may well be crowded out by the Aptera or even the Tata Nano. But it is becoming more and more obvious that leadership in the automotive world is passing out of the Detroit camp and into new territory.

Road Mileage versus GDP

Maintaining roads is a costly affair. Without a road network in good shape, the value of owning a car is considerably less. Paved roads give the best driving experience, allowing for smooth travel at high speeds. Paved roads also give better fuel economy, as traveling over rough dirt or gravel increases the friction and makes the engine work harder. Recall that asphalt paved roads get more expensive to maintain as the price of crude oil rises, because crude oil is the main raw material from which asphalt is made.

We can estimate how well a country is positioned to maintain its road network by comparing the size of the network to the country's GDP. The CIA World Factbook has quite a few statistics measured per country. Amongst them are the total length of the road network, paved and unpaved, in kilometers per country and the country's GDP. The table below shows kilometers of road per million dollars of GDP based on this data. Countries with more road kilometers per million dollars of GDP will be harder pressed to keep their roads in good shape.

The United States weighs in with about half a kilometer of road per million dollars of GDP. France and Russia have about the same values. Germany, China and Japan have less roads relative to their economies, with only about a quarter of a kilometer to maintain per million dollars. India and Brazil are on the other end, with more roads relative to their economies; they have to support closer to a kilometer of road per million dollars of GDP.

Relatively speaking, it would seem that the US has about an average investment in road networks relative to the economy. Not bad, but in a future world where road maintenance gets more and more expensive following the lead of Germany, China and Japan could be smarter. The US could find that it has put too many GDP eggs into the transport basket.

Country	Road KM/Million $ GDP
Hong Kong	0.00663846
Singapore	0.0138588
United Arab Emirates	0.019777
Macau	0.0222712
Gibraltar	0.0272045
Kuwait	0.0384548
Maldives	0.0510737
Monaco	0.0512138
Taiwan	0.0564131
Jersey	0.0701961
Andorra	0.0737705
Korea South	0.0770022
Qatar	0.0850901
Israel	0.0878564
Liechtenstein	0.0913462
Bermuda	0.0993333
Equatorial Guinea	0.125217
Bahrain	0.130086
Mauritius	0.131432
Luxembourg	0.13243
Sudan	0.134661
Lebanon	0.157835
San Marino	0.175692
United Kingdom	0.17816
Isle of Man	0.183891
Brunei	0.186415
Netherlands	0.201143
Iran	0.204963
Guatemala	0.205018
Egypt	0.207666
Germany	0.220335
Switzerland	0.224137
Malta	0.224202
Mexico	0.227789
British Virgin Islands	0.234357
Tunisia	0.234594
China	0.24156
El Salvador	0.248937
Seychelles	0.25151
Dominican Republic	0.252014
Jordan	0.252588
Malaysia	0.256285
Italy	0.26694
Venezuela	0.269871
Japan	0.275806
Trinidad and Tobago	0.286009
Bahamas The	0.290526
Barbados	0.298118
Panama	0.30776
Peru	0.317987
Austria	0.323859
Thailand	0.328145
Chile	0.328458
Norway	0.336395
Greece	0.341864
Croatia	0.348607
Portugal	0.349347
Denmark	0.354542
Haiti	0.360798
Slovakia	0.365284
Puerto Rico	0.372861
Saudi Arabia	0.383063
American Samoa	0.384147
Kosovo	0.3848
Belgium	0.3902
Nauru	0.4
Argentina	0.40225
Honduras	0.402367
Finland	0.402789
Ecuador	0.404352
Cayman Islands	0.404848
Armenia	0.409357
Russia	0.410832
Colombia	0.41479
Morocco	0.417875
Indonesia	0.42654
Bulgaria	0.42808
West Bank	0.430711
Gabon	0.433365
France	0.446085
United States	0.44777
Angola	0.455931
Serbia	0.462267
Faroe Islands	0.463
Algeria	0.46382
Turkey	0.472343
Czech Republic	0.485317
Spain	0.485894
Burma	0.488511
Iraq	0.497617
Ukraine	0.50036
Saint Kitts and Nevis	0.504279
Ireland	0.511122
Ethiopia	0.51928
Kazakhstan	0.519654
Tuvalu	0.535475
French Polynesia	0.548961
Nepal	0.550558
Turks and Caicos Islands	0.560185
Cuba	0.561421
Nigeria	0.574658
Northern Mariana Islands	0.595556
Pakistan	0.601106
Swaziland	0.61689
Senegal	0.623324
Poland	0.632171
Oman	0.632571
Philippines	0.634538
Korea North	0.63885
Cyprus	0.642794
Slovenia	0.650681
Saint Lucia	0.682074
Macedonia	0.700053
Antigua and Barbuda	0.710799
Costa Rica	0.723382
Romania	0.730945
Bosnia and Herzegovina	0.733826
South Africa	0.735675
Azerbaijan	0.760265
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	0.773321
Virgin Islands	0.797083
Canada	0.799923
New Zealand	0.802539
Hungary	0.811225
Albania	0.823422
Cape Verde	0.828221
Belarus	0.82937
Brazil	0.876811
Solomon Islands	0.87969
Jamaica	0.896506
Vietnam	0.916958
Georgia	0.942904
Grenada	0.947059
Botswana	0.951605
Fiji	0.959019
Syria	0.983253
India	1.00377
Micronesia Federated States of	1.00798
Australia	1.01254
Eritrea	1.01416
Iceland	1.01461
Suriname	1.01846
Paraguay	1.019
Kenya	1.03121
Sri Lanka	1.05642
Bangladesh	1.05665
Dominica	1.07394
Montenegro	1.07845
Vanuatu	1.07994
Congo Republic of the	1.12339
Nicaragua	1.13108
Libya	1.14026
Kiribati	1.15358
Sao Tome and Principe	1.15482
Cameroon	1.17123
Moldova	1.17278
Belize	1.18293
Comoros	1.18646
Uzbekistan	1.20401
Sweden	1.2324
Tonga	1.24065
Benin	1.24417
Mali	1.26841
Lithuania	1.27371
Yemen	1.28677
Malawi	1.29297
Cambodia	1.35998
Rwanda	1.43982
Bolivia	1.44027
Tanzania	1.45074
Togo	1.46589
Papua New Guinea	1.48823
Kyrgyzstan	1.58935
Mozambique	1.59079
Anguilla	1.60698
Djibouti	1.62084
Gambia The	1.64339
Cook Islands	1.74672
Mauritania	1.75012
Uganda	1.76512
New Caledonia	1.78024
Latvia	1.78883
Uruguay	1.79644
Ghana	1.80246
Niger	1.80272
Turkmenistan	1.87315
Afghanistan	1.88844
Estonia	2.03411
Tajikistan	2.10516
Chad	2.11125
Laos	2.12784
Lesotho	2.14814
Bhutan	2.27852
Samoa	2.28893
Cote d'Ivoire	2.34467
Timor-Leste	2.39113
Saint Pierre and Miquelon	2.42236
Sierra Leone	2.57521
Guyana	2.68079
Namibia	3.1805
Madagascar	3.25387
Guinea-Bissau	3.85388
Burundi	3.96333
Somalia	4.00072
Guinea	4.17589
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)	4.18649
Burkina Faso	5.15006
Mongolia	5.18465
Zambia	5.21323
Liberia	6.92358
Congo Democratic Republic of the	7.39388
Central African Republic	7.63411
Saint Helena	11
Niue	11.988
Marshall Islands	15.191
Zimbabwe	50.5283

Roads in Poor Condition

Looking over the transportation data at statemaster.com, we can find a list of the number of roads in poor condition per state. Across the country there are 65,874 roads rated in "Poor" condition. These ratings are based on data that the various states are required to report to the Federal Highway Administration. The state with the most poor condition roads is California with 10,091 and the state with the fewest is Georgia with only 15. Looks like we might be seeing a lot more gravel roads in California in the future. With the price of crude oil now seemingly permanently above $70 it will be costly to resurface roads with asphalt. Asphalt is made from crude oil, thus rising in price in tandem with crude.

Roads Need Oil Too

Without well maintained roads to drive them on, cars would not be nearly as useful as they are. We are all very aware of the fact that our cars need a constant supply of gasoline, and thus oil, to keep going. Not as commonly known is the fact that our roads need oil too.

Almost all of the paved roads in the nation are paved with asphalt. However, asphalt is made from oil! It is the lowest grade part of crude oil. After removing all of the fuel components, the remainder becomes asphalt.

The increase of the price of crude oil has brought along with it an increase in asphalt price. That coupled with the current economic crisis means that the states and counties charged with overseeing and maintaining the bulk of the nations' roads are not able to keep them paved. For example, in Michigan, 20 of the 83 counties in that state have converted paved roads in bad shape to gravel. Northern states will generally have the most trouble because the freeze-thaw cycles are hard on pavement.

Another feedback on all this is that gravel roads induce worse fuel economy. Vehicles will use the fewest gallons per hundred miles when driving on the smoothest, most level roads. Gravel roads have more friction that smooth paved ones. Thus as high oil prices lead to high asphalt prices, more and more roads will convert to gravel. That will cause the vehicles that use those roads to burn more gasoline, which will in turn lead to yet more upwards pressure on the price of crude.

The half century of happy motoring the the US is drawing to a close. The signs are all around; from the historically high and persistent price of crude oil, to the reversion of paved roads to gravel to the introduction of the Tata Nano in India. It is difficult to see how over the next decade or so we can possibly avoid a world where driving is expensive and more difficult.

Fuel Consumption Ratings

The Canadian government has a website concerned with vehicle fuel economy. The page presents you with a series of filters, such as year, vehicle manufacturer, transmission and type of fuel. You are given a list of all vehicles that match the filter. Each vehicle has its highway and city fuel economy rating according to the Canadian government, along with the amount of liters used in a year by average driving and an estimate of dollars per year in gasoline costs. One more tool you can use if you are looking around to buy the least gas guzzling option available.

Pew Campaign for Fuel Economy

The Pew Campaign for Fuel Efficiency is a website put together by the Pew Charitable Trusts Foundation that urges us to save on gas. They have a pdf with the history of CAFE standards in the US. The six reasons they give to encourage saving on gas are:

• Reduce dependence on foreign oil
• Save money at the pump
• It is possible to gain fuel efficiency without sacrificing horsepower
• Domestic automakers will benefit
• Fuel efficiency does not have to reduce safety
• Lower production of carbon dioxide
  

Speaking of US fuel efficiency, this link shows that China has published fuel economy standards that put it in third place globally, behind Japan and Europe. The US is falling further and further behind in this area. There can be *no* benefit in being one of the most gas guzzling among the developed nations.

Airlines Get Better Fuel Economy Full

Airlines use a lot of fuel. But they also carry plenty of people over large distances. To discover how these factors interact we need to decide on a way to combine them. One way to do it is to look at how much fuel is used per mile per person. That is the same as the GPHM (Gallons Per Hundred Miles) rating for a car, but then we break that down by the number of passengers. As a large passenger carrying vehicle, be it airplane, bus or train fills up with passengers its fuel economy per passenger gets better. That is because with few passengers the engines still have to move the weight of the vehicle, which is almost all of it. Then as you add more passengers, the total weight to move goes up, but the portion of it represented by passengers also climbs. The overall result is less fuel spent per person.

For example, this chart on the Tupolev 154 shows the effect. As the load factor climbs to 100% the fuel used per passenger drops.



This is a basic and fundamental way to save on gas. We must look to modify the way we get around such as to keep vehicles running at close to full capacity. Do that and we will all save on gas.

Load Factor (%)	Passengers	Fuel Burned per Passenger-km (kg)
19	32	0.21
51	84	0.08
70	115	0.065
82	135	0.053
100	164	0.051

Global Oil Consumption

This video represents the oil consumption of each country with a three dimensional stack or pile above its land surface. This does not show oil consumption per area or per capita, just overall oil consumption. The height is the only thing that has meaning ... do not look at the volume of the colored areas. The thing that immediately stands out is just how high the red tower is over the US territory. A good sign we should be thinking of how to save on gas.

Special Tank to Ease Measurement

To know whether you are saving on gas and how your different driving techniques and vehicle mods are working out, you have to accurately measure how much gas you are using. To detect small changes at the percent or so level you have to put in quite a bit of effort to be able to clearly measure it. This video shows an extreme: the installation of a new gas tank that makes measuring more accurate.

Shell Eco Marathon

The Shell Eco Marathon is race where the goal is to use the least fuel while completing seven laps of a racetrack. Normal racing goes for the least time and who cares how much fuel you spent.