Oil Depletion

Everybody knows gasoline comes from refining oil. So the amount and price of available gasoline will depend closely on the amount and price of oil. At the moment Russia is the world's largest producer of oil and Saudi Arabia is the world's largest exporter. Russia exports less although it produces more because it has a larger internal consumption than Saudi Arabia. Production trends in these two countries will drive global production trends.

The video below has a lecture explaining that it is quite likely these countries are going to be decreasing their production in the years ahead. As the video says, it is possible to look at the production history of these countries and come up with some "directional advice". It is not possible to say at what moment they might start dropping in production or at what rate of decline. But it looks very likely that the direction will switch to down somewhere near now.